I never found that Ron Paul speech about how in the middle-term run, wars in the nation tend generally hurt the political prospects of the governing party (as opposed to the short-term prospects, where they almost invariably help the party.) This was in 2002, the run-up to the War in Iraq, and the run-up to the Mid-Term elections where the Republican Party triumphed in much ballyhood but deceptively overstated fashion.
In a prior blog entry, over a year ago I laid out much of the groundwork of the twentieth century. World War One. Boy oh boy did the American public come to hate the damned thing. Wilson and the Democrats out — Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover win by landslides. Korean War. Truman’s popularity plumets… and out he goes. Eisenhower in, hinting that he will be able to end it. Vietnam destroys Lyndon Johnson — Richard Nixon is the “Peace with Honor” candidate. Vietnam eventually, though only indirectly, knocks out Nixon… a brief Democratic revival.
Well, yes, I guess you can add the Federalist Party circa 1798 to the equation… wherein the Federalist Party gained seats in the midterm election and trounced the Republicans of Jefferson, only to lose the presidency two years later and then simply fade into the ether. Though it seems we never really went to war with France, my cynical reading is that we failed to go to war even as War Fever gripped the nation… simply due to the inertia caused by a long lag-time in communications with France. IE: the American people had to “sleep on it”, and in the morning they sobered up and asked the question “Why did I want to go to war with France again?”
Americans don’t always sour on war. If it’s quick and seemingly painless, we don’t have time to sour on it — hence, say, Iraq War I or Kosovo. But the point there is that the public seem to embrace all wars when they become inevitable. Hence the elections of 1798 and 2002. I don’t know what is to be done about this… “American can’t say no”, as the Decembrists sing, and as Herman Goering once famously remarked, “Naturally, the common people don’t want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship… voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.”
Hm… And so it goes…