I assume the Laws of These Things dictates that at the end of next week, after the Republican National Convention, Mitt Romney will have is first poll lead of the election year.  It won’t much matter if the convention speeches have a short shelf life and the exploitable is duly exploitable — out of sheer energy of the agit-prop of the “Infomercial”s that are modern Political conventions — even as media coverage is sliced down on the major networks and these are left to the domain of the 24 hour politico-entertainment channels that specialize in such things —

And then it will fade.  Obama will hold his convention.  He will enjoy his largest lead he will ever have in this election season.  Which won’t last.  And on Election day, the portion of the public that voes will cast their ballot, and we will now await an open election season for 2016.

“August is the Silliest month”.  I have heard that axiom before on election seasons.  It’s also supposed to be a bad month for the Democratic candidate.  Think of the silly rumors about Dukakis’s mental health in 1988.  Palin’s emergence in 2008.  Swift Boat in 2004.  Just a dead month in the Al Gore campaign in 2000.   And did Jimmy Carter’s Playboy interview come out in August of 1976?

The theory of why this doesn’t hold true for 2012 is two-fold.  One is that there actually was and is a Swift Boat campaign of sorts — a group of Navy Seals insisting Obama had nothing to do with the Hunting of Osama Bin Laden and how dare he take credit for it.  Its impact is negligble — like Brithers running to and fro.  There is no major corporate conglomerate insisting its television affiliates air a documentary on this charade throughout swing states like Ohio.  So this gets brushed off to some rural billboards and World Net Daily sightings.

The next theory is that Obama Hit First.  A spurious and negative ad from a pro-Obama superpac linking Romney with Cancer — denounced rather hypocritically from such clean election advocates as Karl Rove as “A New Low”.  Not even close, and Karl Rove knows Lowness.  And then there was the Harry Reid game of spotting the Baine Insider as the super secret insider source who said Romney paid no taxes — and the furious speculation of … Is this John Huntsman, Senior?

One more theory:  no one watches television like they used to, and a whole lot of superpac ads are being met with indifference because no one under the age of 40-something are seeing them.

So anyway… we move on.  Romney and Obama are now picking and prodding forth.  Into the dozen, then half dozen, then handful of states that are “swinging” deciders.  It’ll be amusing when they inevitably “cross paths” and are mere blocks from each other, but not much else will be interesting.

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