Kamala Harris for President and all that
I was thinking of poking at the big debate and proferring a great policy analysis and comparison out of it. Trade and tariffs. It is maybe a little amusing that Biden’s policy on this is closer — indeed, as Trump pointed out the same — to Trump’s than to the Clinton — Obama free trade consensus. The Trump line that Biden just kept his policies, they were that good, does strike against a line that he came in and dismantled all those great things he did. It also misses a point in policy — Trump’s proposed tariffs for his term 2 — which proceeds to use them in replacement of the income tax — is an entirely different policy than the Trump term 1 / Biden tariffs, and subject to the criticism from — in this case more so than every time Trump brought the phrase up — “all of the” economists, every one of them calling it disastrous — now we move into Smoot / Hartley. “Whole massive tariffs are not the same as some” should be an easy concept to understand –never mind that Al Gore raising the spectre of Smoot and Hartley in his Larry King Show debate against Perot on behalf of NAFTA. I think I can point to this as plausibly the most erudite and coherent piece of the show — a thing in which we now experience an asymmetrical party response in regards to this lunacy.
It is darkly amusing to notice the advanced age of the two Democratic surrogates popping up on behalf of Biden, two figures who were in place as party leaders from the time of the Democratic triumph of 2006 on to the reshuffle of 2022. Pelosi and Clyburn, veering to the end of their careers. To be sure the hedging comes in — but it is 80 year olds propping up an 80 year old, the authorities of the Democratic Party.
Second terms stink in general. At best you can sneak into foreign policy, I guess — arguably based on his state of the union speech Biden’s trajectory of importance. I have been pondering the nineteenth century figures of James K Polk, Rutherford Hayes, and Chester Arthur — three presidents who waved away any seemingly a second term by their own volition. Truth be told, the model for Biden ought have been Arthur — as it does appear the perimeters of the presidency require moving through the motions of being up for re-election — and within the system Chester Arthur had he pretended to do so. Polk was effective (whether you care for his goals or not beside the point):despite declaring his intentions — may show the falsifying of the system’s norms happening even in the nineteenth century. Because my funny assessment is I think Biden is as president okay, even right now, but I am hard pressed to say that is the case too much longer — a team will have to take up more slack in the second term. In terms of winning — this is frankly a hard pull for swing vote Wisconsite. There is this guy making the rounds on cnn, with an oh so scientific approach presidential elections, the only one he ever got wrong, you see, that one in 2000. He says the Dems should stick with Biden, basing this on his oh so scientific numbers. Essentially Biden’s incumbency is worth some point or two, and lose that and the number dips. Sure. For all I know he’s right. But the formula works until it doesn’t. No one who makes a cap their campaign gimmick was ever going to win either. The reason for the pieces of the formula are not the pieces of the formula but what they represent. New variables pop in that work against the always firmly established variables. But The guy continues forth, history and political laws are fixed. It is the same with the great reminder of a convention fight, which at any rate is not liable to happen with this one. The year was 1968, and don’t you remember that? Sure. But LBJ was scrubbed away for any mention at that one. This one — Biden will be given a coronation and basically declared the Greatest President since FDR. Also, last I checked there really aren’t any yippies about outside except for a few cos-playing re-enactors. The thing this represents is not there. On the political numbers of Harris — who was Biden’s choice four years ago and the delegates are Biden / Harris — like it or not, There is a great extent in which they are going to run her this time anyway even if Biden is there — the nature of an 80something physically halting man who flubbed a debate beyond the excusable stuttering problem and who won because a significant part of the electorate thought “he will be fine for a term” — even as they never saw the next hoped part of the equation in having Republicans fold Trump away.