There is an interesting enough quote, accurate enough, from.the sort of “marginal seat” Democratic congress critter. And that is…

No one here cares about who is governor of Virginia. They won’t in a year either.

In the grand scheme of life, not many care who is the congress member of that district in Pennsylvania. Or for that matter, who is their representative.

But, yeah, sure, Data points in electoral tapestry, and all that. I kind of wish we didn’t have to bother on even that level. The Democrats had a horrible candidate who ran a lousy campaign, and his party has emerged as tone deaf on a couple things. The Republicans –well, we do note some “due diligence”, as per the 538 live blog comments:

If the Trump/Youngkin trend Geoffrey referred to keeps up, there’s no guarantee that Republicans can replicate their Virginia strategy in the midterms. State Republicans decided to hold a nominating convention instead of a traditional primary for the governor’s race, ostensibly to prevent Democrats from participating but in reality likely to prevent a candidate like state Sen. Amanda Chase, a self-described “Trump in heels,” from winning the nomination. Republicans could get creative in other states, but in a typical primary — especially in open seats — the candidates that hew closest to Trump might have the best luck. There are a handful of exceptions — happy to get into individual races later — but it’s something to keep in mind as the hot takes begin to pile in.

But it is a thing — undeniably the result was crap for the Donkey Party, even as the near miss in New Jersey’s election is probably in and of itself more worrisome. If it is any silver lining, the results are better than those that greeted the Democrats in Election 2009. For that matter they are better for the Donkey Party than the 2017 elections were for the Republicans.

A kind of elitist purview takes shape with some left-wingers in looking at election results, and I am indeed reminded of a dictum/ refrain I keep muttering. — Everyone skips back and forth between being an elitist or a populist depending. So we have multiple people peering at the “non college degree white women” swinging from Biden to Young kin as against more educated subset of women, and this brings out a latent hand shaking.

A sort of irony with the direction of these polling results, and back to 538 commentary:

There are also issues, like whether or not to keep gifted and talented programs, that have played out in Virginia. That is related to racial inequity issues, but isn’t specifically CRT-related. Even in bright blue New York City, Democrats and progressives have had a difficult time pitching doing away with such programs to parents.

Also, Democrats saying repeatedly that CRT isn’t taught in most K-12 schools â€¦ doesn’t seem to be working as a campaign strategy.

Yeah, they all kind of get tossed in the same mix though, and with that becomes hard to disentangle. When you stand arguing and angry that a “gifted” program has been dismantled with some educational establishment’s rhetoric on how it was increasing racial inequities, you do standing next to another parent complaining that their student is reading a Toni Morrison book whose coverage of slavery is leading their fragile snowflake kid to hate their white selves. One set of political pundits focuses on the former in lambasting “woke”ness, another focuses on the latter in lambasting white fragility grievance politics and, I guess, ” Karen”s…

Weren’t they referred to as “Soccer mom”s in some prior decade? Or are we in some kind of strata sub- definition where we get to, oh, ” waitress mom”s of a decade prior?

… The irony with where this progressive voting analysis goes — damned white non college educated women! — with the issue at the thrust in this election — the parent complaining about a book read in the smart set classroom — and too, a broader defining to the array of issues — in shuttling of some “gifted” programs here and there… presumably to better set up their kid for a good university … But maybe it is the lower class looking to advance their class opportunity deprived smart kids…

Worth pointing out the odd “shoehorn” effect in anti-vaxx polling: in effect, it is the not educated and the overly educated (PhD holders) who hold the refusant position. (Basically, Either not thinking so susceptible to conspiracy theory or over-thinking and so susceptible to conspiracy theory). What does this mean for this analysis of their political problem? Probably does not signify — a data point dropped as they cannot place it into their pat worldviewthat… Um… If only all these women had four year degrees they wouldn’t be opposing praying to a White Jesus bringing them to a stand against Abortion. Though, I am a little confused. Are our non educated white women married to those lower class “NASCAR Dad” s or are they Cheerleader / Traditionalist “trophy wife” material for the upper mobile dudes?

Some nuggets of missing a few marks in Reason:

It’s not hard to see why Terry McAuliffe was so desperate to pin Trump on Glenn Youngkin. Not only was there a legitimate critique about Youngkin’s Trump-voter-courting Election Integrity Task Force proposal, but running against the former president worked like a charm for California Gov. Gavin Newsom in his recall election. Voters in deeper blue states are more likely to be on the alert for anything smacking of the Orange Man, and also more likely to approve of the kind of heavy-handed COVID restrictions Democratic governors prefer.

Newsom was also running against Larry Elder. If McAuliffe were running against Larry Elder, he would have won too — in the same “less blue more purple” Virginia — even with the same “running against Trump” message — even if the same “broadened beyond any actual definition of the term” “critical race theory” confluence as an issue (currently leading to a recall election against several San Francisco school board members)… That… May or may not intersect or cover for a pile of other issues, but come in as issues people have need to redress, available for a politician to run… Was brought into the focus point.

This election comparison means squat and nothing.

…..

There are word uses lobbed all about wrongly, and I do not exactly know how to propose to keep them held. A few years back, I was sitting in Eastern Washington and noting how Eastern Washington school districts were handling the big “National Student Walk Out” for gun legislation after the Parkland shooting. A bunch of school assemblies “salute to first responders” pre-empting any canned able walk-out. Meanwhile in urban and metro centers, the walkout was basically assumed and smiled upon by those school administrations. So I am stuck considering two smug school administration political stances, pushing politics as assumed I would not agree with in high school. Could I remain seated as everyone else in class walks out — including the teacher — to support gun control measures, and end up taking a stronger stance than I care to as well stand out completely? Could I treat the assembly the same manner I did pep assemblies — ie: Skip, drive off, call it a school day? (There, I suppose, I may be assumed to be in some small congregation of gun control advocates joining the national thingamajing.)

On this score — What I always want to know is… What is the history that peoples — partisans on either side — think is being taught? I venture to guess We end up with up with some caricatures that occasionally resemble some forms of reality, and are indeed championed by real people — A 1619 Project with some false notes in it was met by Trump issuing a 1776 Project with that presents the false history notes. Both devolve into caricatures, that at times hit correctly as an actual focus worthy of scorn and at other times simply exist as a figment of an active imagination. No one is teaching that George Washington knocked down a cherry tree and refused to lie about it… Except for where someone is doing so.

A few baselines to comprehend whatever the Virginia gubernatorial election results turn out as–

The last time he won. Media reports have the line that his competition was more easily portrayed as a far right wing crank than his opponent this time out. So we can check this as a “no Republican statewide victory in the last decade” streak against the new bell-weather tonight.

2013 Virginia Governor’s race

Democratic Party Terry McAuliffe 47.8 percent
Republican Ken Cuccinelli 45.2 percent
Libertarian Robert Sarvis 6.5 percent

The count re-election results that swept Bob McConnell to massive victory four years prior was overturned, and I guess that itself helped solidify a 2.6 percent victory as signifying a new “blue state”.

Next up to show the mettle of the Democratic stronghold state against the harsh climes of a bad national environment — 2014 and a popular incumbent versus… Erm… Republican Insider writ large.

Democratic Mark Warner 49.15 percent
Republican Ed Gillespie 48.34 percent
Libertarian Robert Sarvis 2.43 percent

(Blink) (Rub eyes.)

2021 sees a “Liberation” candidate of “Princess Branding”, good for point two percent points — currently a darling of conservative web sites.

But sure — Biden won by double digits. But, see, Biden was running against Trump. I guess so is McAuliffe, but therein lies the accidental genius of Youngkin — who (er) is running locally. It may get him to the percentage range Cuccinelli plus Sarvis or Gillespie plus Sarvis got to in this last decade.

It is a little easy to slumber through an off off year election, a jibber of jabber of localized election contests which theoretically should proffer nothing beyond their localized focal points but which pundits wrap around into an extended narrative.

Virginia forces a discomfitting question: I thought we defeated Clinton and their political apparatus in 2008 with Obama’s primary. And whatever the resultant effects, 2016’s general election provided an end point. And, okay, maybe the 2014 – 2018 gubernatorial service of Terry Mcauliffe had its virtues — I admit in checking in from afar I was moderately impressed by of focal on working to promote some rather unsexy industries — seemingly a good step away from the trappings of party line political fights — but we are still stuck on the echoes of staring at Bill Clinton’s unsavory money holder — which one can look away from with help from one of Virginia’s electoral quirks: no re-elections… a quirk which has the definite virtue of allowing politicians’ weaknesses to slide away, because what does it matter? — S/he’ll be out before they matter. McAuliffe served his time. Why is he back again? Virginia Democrats are left asking the state electorate to throw away the biggest asset they have built into their election system (Notwithstanding however it has played out historically — in undemocratic terms basically a long standing US Senator Harry Byrd plugging in a new no name governor each four year increment to squad any unionization and uphold segregation).

The finale of this election campaign leaves an ugly taste. Sure, “it’s politics”. The Republican makes hay of a parent complaining that their smart kid is reading a Toni Morrison book that has sex in it — you mark this to the problem of something I heard from Steven Pinker that one ought practice the opposite of setting up straw men in arguing and, if you want to get at rational meaning in discourse build up the most solid argument in the opposition and argue against / with that — Here, there lay reasonable public policy problems Youngkn’s end, but damned if he isn’t here gratifying the problem of a parent flummoxed by an advanced student asked to read advanced literature.

Meanwhile, there is a linguistic problem inherent in some media coverage of (sigh) when a bunch of activists with the “Lincoln Project” showed up donning the khakis of the “tiki torch” Charlottesville riot mob to “endorse” Youngkin. The conservative media and twittering goblets label this stunt a “hoax”. It is not a hoax — from my vantage point the members of this greeting never had any intention for this set-up to be mistaken for the actual item of Richard Spencer and crew. We note that there is an actualBlack man in the picture. No — this is roughly analogous to the man dressed in a chicken who followed George Bush on the campaign in 1992. Or perhaps more closely the organization ” Billionaires for Bush and Gore” who refactoring worked on behalf of Nader in 2000, making themselves pests at Bush and Gore campaign functions, before refashioning themselves as “Billionaires for Bush” and chasing after Nader in 2004. The problem with this group and this stunt that they are stuck in a bit of an enclosed bubble, and assume their message will automatically signify to the casual observer. Something like… We must defeat Trump again, and Trump means the Charlottesville marchers — a message which may get Macaulife to victory (though not this stunt), but is necessarily weakened by its very definitions — degrees of separation do indeed exist whether you admit it or not. The other problem is it is hard to take costumed . We land in a land of hypocrisy — the very same partisans complaining that Republicans like Senator Cruz are defending people at school board meetings throwing Nazi salutes (a crude sarcastic political message) are positioned to defend dressing as white supremacists. In a perfect world, they would lose no matter who wins the gubernatorial race.

Nothing else is on the list of great elections. There is a curious and familiar intersectional trip wire in Seattle’s mayoral race worth digesting — you get the feeling a Hail Mary Pass by the “Progressive, Stranger’s pick” Gonzalez blew up in her face. The real question is what is everyone to do to shovelling tax incentive favors and kick-backs to get the Sonics back in town?