Figuring the meaning of the vote
A few baselines to comprehend whatever the Virginia gubernatorial election results turn out as–
The last time he won. Media reports have the line that his competition was more easily portrayed as a far right wing crank than his opponent this time out. So we can check this as a “no Republican statewide victory in the last decade” streak against the new bell-weather tonight.
2013 Virginia Governor’s race
Democratic Party Terry McAuliffe 47.8 percent
Republican Ken Cuccinelli 45.2 percent
Libertarian Robert Sarvis 6.5 percent
The count re-election results that swept Bob McConnell to massive victory four years prior was overturned, and I guess that itself helped solidify a 2.6 percent victory as signifying a new “blue state”.
Next up to show the mettle of the Democratic stronghold state against the harsh climes of a bad national environment — 2014 and a popular incumbent versus… Erm… Republican Insider writ large.
Democratic Mark Warner 49.15 percent
Republican Ed Gillespie 48.34 percent
Libertarian Robert Sarvis 2.43 percent
(Blink) (Rub eyes.)
2021 sees a “Liberation” candidate of “Princess Branding”, good for point two percent points — currently a darling of conservative web sites.
But sure — Biden won by double digits. But, see, Biden was running against Trump. I guess so is McAuliffe, but therein lies the accidental genius of Youngkin — who (er) is running locally. It may get him to the percentage range Cuccinelli plus Sarvis or Gillespie plus Sarvis got to in this last decade.