Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. No one else need bother.
I find it weirdly fascinating that the “Election is coming down to”” the three states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia“. Â Ie: Â the three states that determined the last three presidential elections — going from one end of the spectrum (Wyoming and Utah for the Republicans) and order it down to the District of Columbia for the Democrats, and each state was the one that tipped the election over.
The thing is, though, that it was easily seen by this point in the election what state as going to be determinative. Â So the candidates seemed to largely camp out there for the duration of the campaign, and bombard each state with ads aplenty. Â I understood Al Gore pored over polling date and despite being down by a pretty sizable amount in Florida early in 2000 just didn’t see any way to 270 without the state. Â In very quick retrospect, John Kerry probably should have picked your “blue collar” Dick Gephardt for his running mate and had him just plug about Ohio, and I recall in 2008 those infamous Palin rallies occurred in Virginia — McCain / Palin obliged to run and hope the polls were somehow a few points off everywhere.
How the ball bounced from one place to another may be another item worth studying. Â Virginia was nowhere on Gore’s radar screen, was barely and briefly on Kerry’s, and very quickly easily spotted at the center of Obama’s. Â Florida seemed to fade out of the grip by Republican party machinery just as quickly as it was grasped such that Kerry had to gaze over to Ohio — where Bush / Rove was busy gnabbing unseen Evangelicals.
What’s off with 2012? Â Are the two candidates just a little too off with a large enough political constituencies to quite center on one state — bombard, bombard, bombard — and need to juggle three as possibilities? Â And by 2016, will we see an entirely new state emarge — Nevada, perhaps, or Colorado (both have interesting demographic and socioeconomic dynamics pushing and pulling in different directions).
Interesting, here’s Nate Silver of 538 fame’s chart of “Tipping Point” percentages.
Ohio 41.9 percent
Virginia 12.1 percent
Nevada 9.5 percent
Iowa 7.6 percent
Colorado 6.8 percent
Florida 4.5 percent
New Hampshire 3.4 percent
Pennsylvania 2.8 percent
Maine District 2 Â 0.5 percent
Michigan 0.4 percent
North Carolina 0.3 percent
Minnesota 0.3 percent
New Mexico 0.2 percent
New Jersey 0.1 percent
I don’t know what the polling fluctuations Silver has that dumps Florida down a few slots, and a significant if scant few percent points. Â I am left asking “Iowa?” Â Interesting…
Anyway, I suppose the other half a dozen states will see a slackening of election ads from Romney and Obama, and the other 41 states are spared completely. Â My condolences to the citizens of Ohio, Virginia, and Florida — who have a long few weeks’ ahead of you.