Considering Post Health Care Reform politics
Question of the day, as I wade through pointless political commentary.
What is the most likely path to a political victory in 2010 for a Democratic politician in the Congress? What is the most likely path to a political victory in 2012 for a Democratic politician in the White House? (And with Obama, mind you, he has a longer time frame to consider — in how to conciliate his contradictory election winning personas. Today is not 2012.)
Think for a second. Think for a second of a joke — part of the conventional wisdom — “so and so percentage approve of Obama’s job performance. So and So percent disapprove. The other percentage — are actually waiting for him to do something.” I will say this about Obama — I’m happy to see the demise of the “First 100 Days” window, which he and Rahm Emanuel downplayed as we wound our way to the end of his First 100 Days.
So it is that the quotations over the past bunch of time — first coming about in August with the Town Hall demonstrations, then coming out of the Massachusetts election, that the Bill is Dead and Kaput — that was a desire to create a political reality by stating it and stating it hard. The Massachusetts election was interesting — “Elections have consequences. The voice of the people.” Do you suppose the Election in 2008 had a greater impact than that election?
But to win an election or two, either in 2010 or 2012 — do you do that by trying to figure out a way to appease this man, for instance — and get him to vote for you? I note that Heath Shuler has (and I’m not even going to say this is the wrong political call) indeed followed the call — He voted NO to Health Care Reform. Good luck to that one, I guess.
I saw an evangelical tract the other day. On the front cover was the Obama “Hope Image”. Open inside, and you get the bible quotes. “Whatever your feelings may be about this historic election, there are some things that you as a human being must consider. Obviously, Barack Obama is seen by many as a savior or messiah-like leader. But many of those who see Mr. Obama in this light fail to realize that he cannot fulfill mankind’s greatest needs. Many who read this tract will no doubt end up with a few extra bucks in their pocket because of this historic Obama presidency.” It is a puzzling abomonition. What is this thing suggesting about Obama with that statement? “The consequences of trusting Barack Obama for your grestest needs are that God Almighty Himself will reject you, just as you rejected Him.” Is this relatable to the Health Care bill, I wonder. Rev. 20:15 — a Hellfire burn soul quote, and then a check list of two options. “I hereby repent of my sins and receive Jesus Christ as my personal Lord and Savior from Hell.” Bad word choice — it can be read that Jesus comes from Hell. AND “I hereby reject Jesus Christ and accept Barack Hussein Obama as my personal lord and savior.”
This National Review posting is fine and dandy enough. I have to laugh round about here.
But in the end, even the squishiest Republican candidate chooses to be a Republican, with all of its attendant inherent hostility from much of the mainstream press, demonization by Hollywood, reflexive accusations of racism, etc. That suggests at least a little spine, or at least a certain willingness to espouse a view because of some deeply held principle independent of public opinion.
It’s hard out there being a Republican, isn’t it? Go figure. All these years Liberals have been glum faced about perceived liability of “Liberal” — and so we have the rise of the “Progressive” and the diminuation of any difference between the words.
Meanwhile, all but the most wildly rebellious Democrats will let down a conservative pretty frequently. Only three House Democrats voted against the health-care bill, cap-and-trade, and the stimulus: Bobby Bright of Alabama, Walt Minnick of Idaho, and Gene Taylor of Mississippi. In other words, every other self-proclaimed conservative Democrat voted for at least one piece of legislation that conservatives loathed. John Barrow of Georgia (lifetime ACU rating 36.2) voted for the stimulus. Heath Shuler (lifetime ACU rating 30.6) voted for cap-and-trade. Joe Donnelly of Indiana (lifetime ACU rating 32) signed on for health care.
And you know what? Walt Minnick is not going to win re-election.
The Senate elections are always the easiest thing to watch as a combo. Where are we with that? We have that question: Will the “Tea Party”, as a ballot political enitity, give Harry Reid a lifeline? I would say not and he can’t count on such a thing — it’s probably easy enough for the Republicans to consolidate the opposition behind oustering the Majority Leader. (That’s not a statement about Reid coming through to victory or not, it’s just a statement about the relevance of the third party candidacy.) Would the nomination of a Rand Paul give the Democratic candidate in Kentucky a chance? It seems that way. Is Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas screwed? It looks that way. If, by chance, J. D. Hayworth were to win the Republican nomination in Arizona and ouster John McCain — could the Democratic Party suddenly have a chance? It doesn’t look like that — and besides, McCain now has Palin stumping for him! How the hell did Arlen Specter gets his mojo back? Beats the Hell out of me.