Viewing some uptiks in his poll number, as well collapses and general humming hooing toward the Republican standard-bearers generating no particular excitement, I see a chance, and I do not know how large it is and I do not know if I would really be willing to bet on it, that Ron Paul might win or do very well in the Iowa Caucuses and/or the New Hamshire Primary.

And that would be the end of it. Ron Paul would get no further than that, until I guess he signs up for the Libertarian Party nomination.
Ticking off the precedents of Primary upsets, which includes Estes Kefauver against Harry Truman in 1952 and Eugene McCarthy against Lyndon Johnson in 1968 — the former a victory, the latter one of those “exceeded expectations”.

The more meaningful precedents for my quasi-prediction with Ron Paul are 1988’s victory by Pat Robertson in the Washington state caucuses and the New Hampshire quasi-victory and 1996 actual victory of Pat Buchanan. These were victories by a dedicated core of supporters, not altogether aligned with the Republican Party but there nonetheless, with a crowded group of candidates of poblematic natures.

I can’t say which one is more likely. Given the nature of the state of New Hampshire and the nature of caucuses, I think that if New Hampshire held caucuses I may just suggest putting money down. As it were, only if the odds makers give weak enough odds, and only if you are playing a game of horseshoes.

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