A bunch of Senate races loom over the horizon
The optimism of the partisan blogger expands the pool of opposing candidates and targeted seats to an unrealistic degree beyond what is comfortable to the hacks in charge of the political parties. The mirror image is the 2004 Democratic blog campaign infusions in a futile attempt to up-end Tom Delay versus the 2006 even more futile attempt by Republican bloggers to up-end Jack Murtha. Perhaps these are more publicity-minded than anything else, so perhaps it is awash.
I think I stuck the lists of ‘2006 Senate states’ almost immediately upon the 2004 campaign conclusion. Despite the general consensus of pols, the electoral map did not look that bad for the Democrats to me — it looked about even where 2004 was skewed to the Republicans’ advantage and 2008 is skewed to the Democrats’ advantage. I had pegged eight states of each of the the two ledgers — Republican pick-up opportunities from the Democrats, Democratic pick-up opportunities from the Republicans, fully understanding it would shorten to about five or six on each side by election day. The Democratic side remained at eight; the Republicans faded to two. I imagine a great Republican year would have had the exact opposite effect.
My understanding of the electoral map, as armchair political strategist, saw the states of Ohio, Montana, and Virginia as important bell-weathers to future hopes of success for the Democratic party. I mention these states because all three states were for a while stuck in a no-man’s land of inaction or misguided action from the Democratic Party, and largely had to be rescued from the Party’s beltway insider strategies. (Never mind the other states suffised just fine — Pennsylvania pegged with a “pro-life” Democratic candidate, for instance.)
The Democrats needed to win Ohio’s Senate seat beause of what happened in the 2004 presidential race which saw Bush campaigning in critical Ohio with various statewide elected officials and John Kerry campaigning in Ohio with… former Senator and beloved astronaut John Glenn. I guess Chuck Schumer had difficulty getting Sherrod Brown or anyone else into the race, because for the longest time nobody was running. Eventually the bloggers’ creation and favorite Paul Hackett had to throw his hat in the ring. And of course, Sherrod Brown then jumped in to run as the state-mood soured for the Democrats. Just as well, because from the bloggers’ perspective Brown probably matches their ideology better anyways.
The Democrats reportedly didn’t see any hopes with Virginia until Kaine won the Governorship in the 2005 election, and had a congenial sacrificial lamb primed to lose to the Republican presidential front-runner George Allen. I had the state figured as a Democratic hopeful earlier — based on the 2004 presidential results of a relatively good John Kerry showing. Jim Webb was in the race, and upon Kaine’s victory, was tossed the party’s support.
Montana had a DLC candidate picked to push out the corporatist Abraham – infused Conrad Burns. Fortunately Jon Tester pushed him aside, of the two the one who could defeat Burns, by way of stronger and sharper contrasts.
The Republicans blew the 2006 Senate elections by chasing after Maryland and New Jersey as election day loomed. Both attempts make sense, in terms of future electoral goals, but it was clear by then that this was a year the Republicans needed to cut their losses and try to retain the two still red states of Virginia and Montana — thus retaining the Senate. The tactical error was shown to be larger than was obvious on election day when Jim Webb gave the Democratic response to the State of the Union, and was generally believed to have out-shone Bush. Hence, the Democrats have a better chance in 2008 of capturing Virginia.
Bounding into the 2008 Senate elections, I notice that the major Democratic bloggers are combing through the Senate possibilities and coming up with hopelessly rose-colored scenarios. Do you really figure Mitch McConnell can be taken down? The 2004 Democratic challenger in Kentucky lost — and the Republican Incumbent was Senile — the precursor of defeating Minority Leader Tom Daschle happened in a state Republicans carried by practically a 2 to 1 margin. How good a chance do you really give beating Elizabeth Dole? Are you really going to poo-poo the Republicans’ chances in New Jersey, based on the fact that the Democrats dodged several bullets in a tight-rope walk through general impressions of corruption? Who is kos hinting at as an “exciting candidate” he can not name in Texas? (Um. Jim Hightower? That Representative who defeated Tom Delay? Ross Perot?)
I await for the pool to become larger still, to encompass Oklahoma’s James Inhofe — or maybe someone in either Utah, Wyoming, or Idaho.
I suspect that there is a strange mix of unpetered optimism and a whiff of desperation in the Republican blog-land, which is a bit more 3-dimensional than Democratic blog-land, but appropriately so considering what the prospects look like for the 2 parties.