Barrons: a Cynical Prognostication for a Cynical Election System
JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years — and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don’t see it.
Our analysis — based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data — suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber’s 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party’s loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.
And so the latest issue of Barrons, a publication tossed out by the Wall Street Journal, has prognosticated. Barron’s online presence stopped in the middle of the second paragraph, sans payment, so I had to shuffle over here and here to complete their thought.
The first conservative blog suggests that if this prediction holds, the Democrats will surely have to heel the lessons, but (ha ha ha) won’t. The second blog publishes further, and then comments about the “come home” effect of Republicans — such that it is.
The prognostication is a cynical one, which doesn’t necessarily mean it is not apt in our — um — flailing empire and fading republic — so much as it would mirror a cynical electoral process. Because, our first bloggers’ comments miss the “lesson” that the Democrats should be “learning”.
Look at House races back to 1972 and you’ll find the candidate with the most money has won about 93% of the time. And that’s closer to 98% in more recent years, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Polls can be far less reliable.
So it is the Golden Rule: He with the most gold makes the rules. The lesson the Democratic Party (nay… let’s go with the Republican slur — the Democrat Party) needs to learn, as suggested by Barron’s Magazine, should their prognostications turn up correctly:
Do more of the major corporations’ interests than the Republicans, so that they will flip their decision on preferred party. That attempt — botched as it would pretty much be — suits the “Investor Class” of the Wall Street Journal and Barrons just fine, thank you very much.
Cue Drug makers shore up GOP candidates.
If you look at this election as that metaphorical “hurricane”, you look at this as part of a bunch of well-heeled metaphorical “levee”s, along with — say — gerry-mandered safe districts.