“If the election were held today”
I’m not entirely sure what any of these poll results are supposed to mean. The survey asked Americans to ponder their options in every U.S. presidential election held since 1964. I suppose when you can’t go back to Nixon — Kennedy because Kennedy has been diefied. Ditto Eisenhower — Stevenson, Truman — Dewey, and Roosevelt versus Everyone. The three contests I want to ask are: William Henry Harrison versus Martin Van Buren. (I have no clue how that one would turn out.) Abraham Lincoln versus George McClellan. (I think we’d have to absolve the South from voting on this one, since they weren’t allowed to in the first election and the election concerned itself almost entirely on their fate. I’m curious to see if McClellan can clear himself into double digits.) Grover Cleveland versus James Blaine. (No particular reason, just find a dull and forgotten election with imperceptible repercussions on the future and see if anyone can say anything about it.)
Election results:
1964
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 50%
Barry Goldwater (R) 23%
Actual result: 61.1 to 38.5. What was that saying? “We voted for Johnson and received Goldwater’s foreign policy?” Notwithstanding that, I’m surprised Johsnon’s landslide holds up here. Goldwater has been refurbished in history, and Johnson’s “Great Society” has been successfully demonized.
1968
Richard Nixon (R) 34%
Hubert H. Humphrey (D) 31%
George Wallace (I) 15%
Actual result: 43.4% to 42.7% to 13.5%. 15 percent would vote for George Wallace, still today? God damned it. Would they vote for Strom Thurmond too? Curious to compare it with:
1972
George McGovern (D) 42%
Richard Nixon (R) 39%
Actual result: 60.7% to 37.5%. See, today the Republican Party is bringing out the McGovernite card to churn public opinion to the consideration that the Democrats are… the party of the 3 As. Have you looked at the 3 As lately? George W Bush’s lowest approval rating in age-demographis is amongst 20-somthings: 20 percent, as it were. How do they respond to the three As? Amnesty, or alternately when the slur is fogged up a bit Appeasement. With vague fears of a draft looming over the place if we pursue the same foreign policy we are at the moment, and with this age-group being the ones who are sent out to fight, the consideration brings them to be for it. Abortion. An issue that cuts every which way, and will destroy each party at various points. Acid. You can easily just transfer this to “Marijuana”, and our generation of potheads seem to be in favour of it. Okay, NEXT!
1976
Jimmy Carter (D) 52%
Gerald Ford (R) 35%
Actual result: 50.1% to 48.0%. Ford falls away into “non-entity status”. Ford will be forgotten by history. What the heck is a Gerald Ford?
1980
Ronald Reagan (R) 56%
Jimmy Carter (D) 30%
John Anderson (I) 6%
Actual result: 50.7% to 41.0% to 6.6%. Carter fares better than Mondale. For what it’s worth.
1984
Ronald Reagan (R) 64% to Walter Mondale (D) 24%
Actual Result: 58.8% to 40.6%.
1988
George H. Bush (R) 53%
Michael Dukakis (D) 33%
Actual Result: 53.4% to 45.6%.
I note that Bush’s vote total remains identical. Theoretically if all of the voters who opted out, for whatever reason, voted for Dukakis, the trajectory of how people think of Bush and how people of Dukakis would be discovered as being a straight line across.
1992
Bill Clinton (D) 52%
George H. Bush (R) 30%
Ross Perot (I) 12%
Actual Result: 43.0% to 37.4% to 18.9%. I will note that Perot now has an unmovable 12 percent in the electorate. I will also note that Bush is more popular than Dole. I will also note that Clinton has finally pushed his way past that elusive 50 percent marker.
1996
Bill Clinton (D) 56%
Bob Dole (R) 25%
Ross Perot (Ref.) 12%
Actual Result: 49.2% to 40.7% to 8.4%. Lanslide Clinton!
2000
Al Gore (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 38%
Ralph Nader (G) or
Pat Buchanan (Ref.) 9%
Actual Result: 47.9% to to 48.4% to 2.7% plus 0.4%. Is Al Gore and John Kerry the exact same candidate? Though, Al Gore surely looks better than John Kerry these days.
2004
John Kerry (D) 46%
George W. Bush (R) 40%
Ralph Nader (I) 7%
May I mention that Nader has jumped up, that even as Al Gore and John Kerry slide right past Bush they both fail to receive the same percentage of votes as they did when they actually ran? I also note that, obviously, as we get closer to the present the numbers come closer and closer to 100.