Blast from the Past
Joshua Muravchik, resident scholar of the American Enterpise Institute, New York Times, 1-24-1991.
It will be weeks before the guns in the gulf fall silent, but we can see already the political contours of the world following an American victory. Important changes are in the offing on three levels of politics: domestic, Arab and global. Domestically, the most profound consequences may be felt in the Democratic Party, dominated ideologically since the Vietnam War by its dovish wing. If the large majority of American voters continues to view the gulf war as the most just, necessary and successful our country has fought since World War II, the Democrats will pay a heavy price for having opposed it.
However, those who bucked the leadership and supported the President — Stephen Solarz, Les Aspin, Dave McCurdy, Dante Fascell in the House; Joseph Lieberman and Albert Gore in the Senate — will emerge vastly strenghtened. They will win plaudits both for being right and for having risen above partisanship. If they stick together even loosely they will constitute a formidable new force in the party. From their ranks may come the next Democratic candidate, albeit not before Mr. Bush has had his second term.
In the Arab world, the drubbing of Saddam Hussein will be an epiphany that will demolish the appeal of the radical path. The bane of Arab politics has been a millenarianism that has stood in the way of a reckoning with reality — the reality of Israel, the reality of the West. Whether in the form of pan-Arabism, religious fanaticism or secular radical ideologies, this millenariansim has led many Arabs to believe that, with unity or the right leader or theory, the humiliations of colonialism and underdevelopment could be redeemed and the world could be had on Arab terms rather than through compromise.
If — as seems all but certain — the war ends in Saddam Hussein’s utter humiliation, the sobering effect should be enormous. With Mr. Hussein’s Baath Party in tatters, Soviet influence a thing of the past, Islamic extremism losing its luster in Iran and the myth of unity shattered as never before, the Arab world may be ready finally for realism and moderation.
Last but not least, the gulf war marks the dawning of the Pax Americana. True, that term was used immediately after World War II. But it was a misnomer then because the Soviet empire — a real competitor with American power — was born at the same moment. The result was not a “pax” of any kind, but a cold war and a bipolar world. During the past two years, however, Soviet power has imploded and a bipolar world has become unipolar. A global rush toward democracy and free markets has spelled a huge victory for America on the ideological plain. Now, in the gulf war, our ideological supremacy is being matched by a demonstration of America’s refurbished military capability.
Since Vietnam, doubts had abounded, both at home and abroad, about America’s willingness to use force and its ability to do so effectively. It may well have been such doubts that led Saddam Hussein to ignore President Bush’s pleas and threats. It is not likely another ruler will soon hasten to make the same miscalculations. America’s rediscovered prowess will not be used for conquest but to deter others from conquest: to secure the “new world order” that has been a goal of American policy since President Woodrow Wilson. In addition it will strengthen the attraction of America’s political and economic system.
This Pax Americana will rest not on domination but on persuasion and example as well as power. It will consist not of empire but of having won over a large and growing part of the world not only to the joys of jeans and rock and Big Macs but also to our concept of how nations ought to be governed and to behave.