# of Congressional Districts won by George W Bush in 2004: 255
# of Congressional Districts won by John F Kerry in 2004: 180
# of Congressional Districts won by George W Bush in 2000: 228
# of Congressional Districts won by Albert Gore in 2000: 207
Please note that Al Gore won more votes than George W Bush.
For the Democratic Party, this is an uncomfortable statistic. The Democratic – safe seats are packed tighter than the Republican – safe seats. A large part of it is the nature of geography: draw a reasonable line in metropolitan areas, and you’re guaranteed to get a heavy dense “urban” population of liberals; draw lines in the vast wasteland, the density varies throughout the region. Suburbia is — let’s just say for the sake of argument 55-45 Republican. Rurality trends as Republican as Urban trends Democratic. It’s weird to say that an urban district is more heterogenous politically than a rural district, but maybe this is a function of how narrowly partisan politics gets defined versus … something entirely different. But in the end, Doc Hastings’s Democratic opponent wins more votes than Jim McDermott’s Republican opponent.
Effective, and you can add “unfair”, gerry-mandering does the trick as well. And the truth is that members of the minority party are comfortable enough knowing that they have a job as long as they want. California is gerry-mandered in support of the Democratic Party, and Arnold Schwarzenegger tried to get some sort of Redistricting-Reform through the ballot. Assume for a second that the proposition was fair-minded: it needed to be flunked out because one party cannot “unilateraly disarm” while a Texas goes its merry way with a re-districted redistricting. It is easy to see the effect redistricting had by subtracting the effect a 3% differential would have on the swinging of congressional districts from Gore to Bush, and seeing what remains by way of the large Kerry deficit in terms of how many congressional districts he won.
# of states carried by Bush in 2004: 30.
# of states carried by Kerry in 2004: 20.
# of states carried by Bush in 2000: 30.
# of states carried by Gore in 2000: 20.
Another uncomfortable statistic for the Democratic Party. I would also add, of course, that if you threw out the 2 Senate seats that factor into each state’s electoral seats in the electoral college, Al Gore won the election in 2000 without Florida.
The net result is that the Legislative branch is more Republican than the nation as a whole. And this extends to the Democratic Party — after the South finally broke away from its Lincoln-era aversion to the Republican party on the local and state levels and the Republicans gained the Senate in 1994, it was a hard slough for the Democratic Party to get to 50 seats — a feat they managed in 2000. (and Jeffords made for the majority 51 in 2001.) And this includes Zell Miller as a Democrat (along with a cadre of Southern Democrats that are more Republican than the Northeastern cadre of “Moderate Republicans” are Democratic.)
My comment to Howie in Seattle: Sadly, nobody of front rank has emerged to take on McMorris or Rep. Doc Hastings, R-Wash.: There aren’t a whole lot of elected Democrats to choose from in that area to be the traditional “front rank” candidate. It’s a funny game… trying to get someone competitive to make up for the huge discrepency in the Republican versus Democratic drawn district, even at a crest of what should be a Democratic year where Hastings’ name is repeatedly mentioned in the Abramoff- (and DeLay) ordeal. (Are these the positions of the district at large? The story of how people vote tends to puzzle me.)
I’m leading this to somewhere, so watch for further comments sooner or later. (I still need to get around to my part 2 of “radio gaga”. And the LaRouche-post fan is likely waiting impatiently for me to write something new up on LaRouche. Maybe he can chew on this before I get around to one.)