If Schmidt’s victory margin is in double digits, this tells us that there is not much of an anti-GOP wind in Ohio right now. If the margin is say six to nine points for Schmidt, then there is a wind, but certainly no hurricane. A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong, while a Hackett victory would be a devastating blow to the Ohio GOP.

Thus saideth Charles Cook, professional political prognesticator and pollster.

We began this race way back in late March, and no one had thought we’d be the focus of the national media or be the so-called first test of the Republican Party and the Bush mandate. Well, ladies and gentleman, we passed that test.

Thus saideth the victorious candidate, Jean Schmidt. The comedy of the statement comes due to the reason why “nobody thought [they’d] be the focus of the national media or be the so-called first test of the Republican Party and the Bush mandate.”

Which is to say… she won by three and a half percentage points. It wasn’t supposed to be like that. It wasn’t supposed to be like that at all.

Hackett told USA Today that Bush’s taunting line, “Bring ’em on!” was “the most incredibly stupid comment I’ve ever heard a president of the United States make.” He also told the newspaper that, while he was willing to put his life on the line for the president, “I’ve said that I don’t like the son-of-a-[expletive] that lives in the White House.”

Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee have bought TV time for commercials over the weekend. “He called the commander in chief a son-of-a-[expletive],” said NRCC spokesman Carl Forti. “We decided to bury him.”

Does a three-and-a-half point victory count in this district count as a “burial” of candidate Hackett? I don’t know. I do know, or do believe, that Hackett probably would not have come as close as he did had he not shouted out such rhetoric… tapping into Ohio’s frustration on state and national politics as of the moment. (How many Ohio National Guards do we hear about in the news as the latest casualties of the Iraq War?) Nor would he have had the credibility in the public eye if it weren’t for his service in the Iraq War. Which is the trouble for the Democratic Party — whom are they going to recruit to make a race of these races?

But, in the end, Schmidt won, and Hackett has a “moral victory”. A victory is a victory. Even if your victory margin is some 40 points less than any victory margin your party has held in three decades.

2004: Rob J. Portman * (R) 72
Charles W. Sanders (D) 28
2002: Portman (R): 74%
Sanders (D): 26%
2000: Portman: (R): 74%
Sanders: 24%
1998: Portman: 76%
Sanders: 24%

And the election returns are like that. The Democratic Party has won all of nine elections in this district since the dawn of its existence.

A moral victory isn’t a victory. Just ask Al Gore. But… there’s this problem that John Kerry faced in campaigning in the critical swing state of Ohio in 2004. There were no local popular Democrats he could campaign with. He stood behind John Glenn, out of politics since the 1980s (off the moon since the 1960s). Ohio is a one-party state, which serves to explain why everything is going hay-wire for their Republican Party right now… the governor has a nineteen percent (or thereabouts) approval rating.

Now, Paul Hackett probably has to be key-noting the next Ohio Democratic State Convention. His moral victory is simply this: in any other district in the state of Ohio (save, perhaps one), he would have won this race.

And Senator Mike DeWine has to be wondering right now.

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