A scan of Campaign Oddsmakers shows DeLay still at 90%. Which, I suppose, is below the 99% threshold one would expect of the super-incumbant. But they don’t seem to do any down or up grading for House canidates — leaving close inspection to the Senate, Presidential, and perhaps the Governor races — and the national accumulated races. (Understandably: how in the world would you keep track of 435 individual races?) [Example: they’ve downgraded Jim Bunning’s chances for his Senate race in Kentucky — due to questions about his mental state of being, they’ve not downgraded David Wu for his House seat in Oregon — who has brought new meaning to the colloquial term of his campaign-workers “The Wu Crew”.)

“If not now when?”…

While Republicans vigorously defended Representative Tom DeLay, the House majority leader, in the wake of a series of ethics rebukes, members of both parties said on Thursday that Mr. DeLay, a tough-talking Texan who holds a tight rein over the House, could have difficulty retaining his leadership job if his party loses seats in next month’s elections.

“Without Tom DeLay it would be complete and total chaos,” said one Republican strategist with close ties to the White House. “The House would descend into ‘Lord of the Flies.’ “

There’s the national political word on DeLay. Nancy Pelosi sneaks in, somewhat sneakily, a scathing attack on DeLay on the House floor. And the conservative, and as it has turned out during the Bush Administration prinipled conservative Judicial Watch thinks DeLay oughta step down. (Which, come to think of it, brings a “Why Not?” question: after all, he was the “hammer” who pushed Bush’s “big government” Medicare Bill through by whipping a few miscreant Republican dissenters into line.)

Everything is all good and jolly, but really… how is it playing in DeLay’s district?

Just enough of a challenge that DeLay actually feels the need to do actual campaigning in Sugarland.

For, in the vast background some poll or other has the challenger — Morrison– eight or so points back.

Since House races aren’t polled too often, anecdotal evidence becomes more important than statewide races: the anecdotal evidence of “mood on the street” suggests some hope. (The tenor of the article is described by the following image: grab a Morrison sign, grab a Bush sign).

The area newspapers are endorsing Morrison. Here. (which sort of is the tenor of the Houston Chronicle’s editorial opinion of the man.)

In my continued — and oft-accidental– spotlighting of this group… the LaRouche Youth Squad are in full force. I’d prefer that they cease and desist, as I find it hard to imagine that the Republican residents of Sugarland, Texas will be swayed by pamphlets regarding the “Children of Satan”. (Note: for what it’s worth, this actual article doesn’t appear to diverge from the reality of the situation.)

DeLay will most likely win. In the event that Richard Morrison is elected, he will more than likely be booted out in two years by a Republican – backed Ficus. The Republicans appear to be much better at hoistering party leaders up from safe districts than the Democrats are. (Tom Foley… Tom Daschle.) As with the candidates that ran against Foley and Daschle, Morrison’s campaign is based on alienation from the local district and the gospel that his interests are his own and not ours… but… Republicans outnumber Democrats by a large margin.

(Ironically, due to the DeLay – backed Texas redistricting plot … it’s not quite as red as it used to be– ie: for the sake of getting some more safe Republican districts, he moved in a few Democrats into his super-safe district. If he loses the election in November, let it be said that DeLay outsmarted himself and drew himself right out of his job… a crucial part to the “Perfect Storm” that would be the story of his undoing.)

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