1998 Predictions
1998/08/23 If Republicans already felt good about this fall’s congressional and gubernatorial campaigns before this week, they can barely contain their glee over their prospects now that President Clinton has confessed to an “inappropriate” relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky.
1998/09/03 Robert talks with Charles Cook, political analyst for the National Journal. They discuss the optimism that is growing among Republicans that the party could gain more seats in the fall elections as a ressult of economic worries and political fallout over the Monica Lewinsky scandal.
Late predictions: In the final days before the election, many political observers have commented on the expected outcome of the congressional races, generally agreeing that the Republican Party will add to its current total of 228 seats in the House of Representatives and 55 in the Senate. Among those making predictions:
— The McLauglin Group (John McLaughlin, Pat Buchanan, Eleanor Clift, Michael Barone and Tony Blankley): a consensus 5-seat pick up in the Senate.
— The Beltway Boys (Mort Kondracke and Fred Barnes): 10 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate.
— Charlie Cook of National Journal: 5 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate.
— Democratic pollster Celinda Lake: 7 seats in the House and 1 in the Senate.
— Republican pollster Ed Goeas: 17 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate.
— Republican pollster Kellyanne Fitzpatrick: 16 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate.
— Bill Schneider of CNN: fewer than 10 seats in the House and fewer than 5 in the Senate.
“Panic City: Facing 30-seat loss in House, filibuster proof Senate, and no more sex. Conventional Wisdom Watch (Newsweek column)30 seats
Dick Morris, political consultant 20-30seats
George F. Will, conservative columnist 6-20 seats
William Kristol, Weekly Standard editor 15 seats
Morton Kondracke, Roll Call editor 15 seats
Tony Blankley, George magazine writer 8-15 seats
Laura Ingraham, “Watch It,” host 13 seats
Ed Goeas, GOP pollster 13 seats
Ed Rollins, GOP consultant 10-12 seats
Bill McInturff, GOP pollster 10-12 seats
Cokie Roberts, “This Week” co-host 2-12 seats
Paul Weyrich, Free Congress Foundation president 11 seats
Christopher Matthews, “Hardball” host 11 seats
Norah O’Donnell, Roll Call political reporter 11 seats
Gerard Baker, Financial Times’s Washington bureau chief 11 seats
Mary Matalin, GOP consultant 8-10 seats
Sam Donaldson, ABC White House corespondent 9 seats
Merle Black, Emory University political scientist 9 seats
George Stephanopoulos, former Clinton advisor 9 seats
Charlie Cook, newsletter editor 1-9 seats
Bill Schneider, CNN analyst 1-9 seats
Robert Novak, columnist 8 seats
Linda DiVall, Republican pollster 7 seats
Ron Lester, Democratic pollster 7 seats
Jodie Allen, “Slate” Washington editor 6 seats
Whit Ayers, GOP pollster 6 seats
Stuart Rothenberg, newsletter editor 0-6 seats
Bill Maher, “Politically Incorrect” host 5 seats
Gwen Ifill, NBC News reporter 5 seats
Mark Shields, Capitol Gang host 0-5 seats
Ken Rudin, washingtonpost.com 2-3 seats
Congressional Quarterly (Democrats) 2 seats
From the goddamned American Spectator: Beltway know-it-alls have sharply scaled back estimates of GOP gains in the House and Senate. But when I read the polls in the boondocks, I see the pro-Republican leaning of the most likely voters staying constant or even widening. Couple that with the standard unreliability of polls in Congressional races (smaller samples, less frequent polling) and the “dirty secret” — remarked on separately by Dick Morris, William Safire, and Ariana Huffington — that respondent rates are dropping sharply (meaning that voters don’t want to tell pollsters what they’re doing), and you still have the possibility of a 1994 shock wave.
FINAL OUTOME: No pick-up either way in the Senate; Democrats picked up 5 House seats. Newt Gingrich resigned in disgrace. His replacement, Bob Livingstone, resigned in disgrace.