Twelve Points
My first reaction upon seeing Bush’s twelve point Time Magazine Poll lead was “outlier”, an anomolie. It was amongst a sea of polls that showed Bush with a four point lead. Then, there it was: Newsweek with the same twelve point lead. Therefore, it’s not a polling anomolie. It’s, somehow or other, a real result that shines light on reality somewhere and somewhen and somehow. The chattering classes love this poll bounce, and it’s all over the place.
But then I get this posting from Joshua Micah Marshal. The Bush and Kerry campaign both have Bush ahead by four percentage points. Bush working conservatively and Kerry in a case of wistful hope? Don’t know. But, since they both have that result and both are working as if that is where the election stands, and since it happens to comply with a lot of other polls… It’s, somehow or other, a real result that shines light on reality somewhere and somewhen and somehow.
My working theory goes like this: we have a viewer of the conventions, eight percent of the electorate, a male chugging beer and dipping chips into cheese dip while he watches. He high fives somebody when The Terminator says “Don’t be ecomonic girlie men”. He raises his fist when the bullhorn moment is invoked by Rudy Giuliani. He’s ready to kick ass!
But, this eight percent of the electorate sleeps on it. He goes to his part time job at 7-11 the next morning, after waiting for five hours by the phone to see if the job he recently applied to after being downsized at the local factory. Then it dawns on him, “Did Schwarzenegger call me an economic girlie man?”
And all of a sudden, he envisions the image of Zell and thinks “Wow! He’s worse than Dean!”
We can toss in a few of those phantom “Security Moms” in that eight percent of the electorate — this is the desired transformation that of voting patterns that the Republican Party hopes from from the old “Soccer Moms”. Egad, politics is littered with faddish fifteen minutes of simplications.
The anniversary of 9/11 is right around the corner — the reason that the Republican Convention was scheduled so late in the first place, to segue a momentum from the convention to 9/11… bullhorn imagery is much in vogue.
Never mind though. I think the Republican Party might have opened up a sixteen point lead in Time had they had Lynne Cheney read some of her descriptions of hot girl on girl action! Perhaps it would alienate some of the religious right base — but they were pretty well placated by the platform. This is about getting to the male demographic… perhaps they could’ve scheduled it for that halftime show Peter Jennings had during that Monday Night Football Preseason Game.
(Note: curiously enough, the name of the book does not appear on the official biography page for Lynne Cheney.)