A familiar sight in electioneering — the opportunities of campaign dwindle to a handful for the unpopular incumbent — Obama needs to be out campaigning for someone In 2010, but true swing states cut him off — the only place he can find are some heavily black or heavily college districts and the man running against Christine O’Donnell throws him a bone. The circumstances are maybe a little different in this election cycle, but it is a desperate special election batch with, for instance, House Speaker Johnson rolls to a Trump +25 seat and carried a voice message call from Trump to maintain a hold and a seven point victory against a generic Democratic activist. Where will Trump show up — I don’t know, we are in Biden 2022 territory where he may just go wherewithal scarily lighted doom speech and then physically disappear — yeah, he came out swinging against Massie, but that’s a primary.

Today the most important election for the current American conservative movement is taking place. Over in Hungary. Victor Orban is holding on for fear life and has brought in the big guns to rally the base — enter Vice President JD Vance, enter a call in from Donald Trump to the cheering crowd, and enter a message Hungarian patriots to vote to stop powerful foreign and international movements from coming in tell them how they should run their country. The mind reels.

Trying to assess where to campaign — various red districts dotting the US, they won’t admit they have to put in money to Texas until they have to, but the real stop gap to hold and aid future political victory is Hungary. If Hungary falls, all is lost — it will be hard to pick up the pieces and how is JD Vance going to shuffle together the political map to get to 270 electoral votes in 2028 when Hungary is automatically Newsom Country?

Today is a historically important date, down in history as the closest to a nuclear bomb dropping since, I guess 1982/3 with Stanislav Petrov waving away a computer error and Soviet freak-out in intercepting and them a taking as serious a routine American/Britain War game planning.  A “probably not, but…” protudes. … A Truth Social post is a truth social post.

Reportedly Reagan was so moved by the ‘Day After’ mini-series that he changed policies and posturing.  Not much you can drop in mass media right now.  Though, even if someone did, the weird right-wing response from various right -leaning creators was to get a ‘post Soviet invasion’ mini-series on network tv, which did not have any effect on Reagan as by that time Gorbachev was well on the way in Perostrokia and Glastnot (spelling may be off).  (You can find that ‘Amerika’ series on YouTube anyway, and laugh at the comments.)

It is basically a given that the Democrats are going to win the House, though I have a huge that anything less than a measure of 60 freaking plus seats is a bit of a “who cares?” in assessing political strait-jackets. Or probably moreso and tangibly the Democrats winning the Senate. Everything short of that is a rudderless “yeah, 2022 — and the voters have spoken”, false hope for Biden. The tea-leaves grow though — a 10 plus Florida state Senate special election swings Democrat, some 20 plus seat is won by a few points. The matter of the second greatest House exodus in a century by Republican retiring Congress people is tempered a bit — normally one retired because it is no fun to be in the minority — in the Trump / Johnson era of Steve Bannon crowing that the Congress is now functioning as the Russian Duma does it is not any fun to be in the majority either.

The big question in polling, if you ask and tabulate the question of who the electorate voted for in 2024, would the results come back that Harris won — similar to Democratic polling in 1974 finding McGovern beat Nixon. My bunch is no, that the great “price of eggs are just too fanned high and they weren’t five years ago” chunk of low propensity “guard against trans athletes” vote post Trump grumbling voters will split in two directions — Biden and Harris. Some will only have a vague recall Harris was on the ballot, and the great election day trending question “Did Biden drop out?” will shade into the rest.

Comically, multiple states the Democratic Senate candidate is not a Democrat, but an “Independent”, not a sign of a firm party. Nebraska, naturally. Montana, though that one came about situationally with the classic “Incumbent drops out five before filing deadline with hand picked successor knowing to pounce”. At least the Alaska hasn’t folded off in that manner.

For Presidents Day, former president George W Bush wrote an essay on George Washington, that curious foundational figure no one really can say much about. A fascinating document that exists out of time, the equivalent of a fifth grade essay that may as well have been heavily pulled out of an encyclopedia, full of generic patriotic platitudes and pieties. As a celebration of the office, it was then described as a “subtle” rebuke of the current President. A dash too subtle, naturally, to the point where you know it is no such thing. It describes virtues and that we have a president that does not meet any virtues allows a forced reading.

The George W Bush legacy has, I guess, now been fulfilled with military strikes against Iran for the wobbling claim of desiring regime change to free an oppressed peoples. And with that, Donald Trump is now a neo-con. We spent bulk of the George W Bush second term with an “any minute now” warning of impending war / “invasion” of Iran — something that was never coming to fruition. The loudest cohort on this drumbeat included, out of the fringes, the likes of Alex Jones, Scott Ritter, Tulsi Gabbard, Ron Paul, the various writers on The American Conservative. All of whom no love lost for George W Bush and were ready to throw their lot in with Donald Trump. You can toss in figures like Tim Poole and a batch of horeshoe “gonna knock Obama liberal interventionalist” groups in the mix — all ready to call anti-war Obama voters hypocrites for supporting a guy who was busy surging troops in Afghanistan. I am going to make an educated guess — check in with Matt Taibbi and what I will see is a one-sided neener neener “whataboutism”.

For what it is worth that one saving grace of President Trump, why until the last month of office I rated President Trump ahead of President Bush, is now in smoldering ashes. (He talked to North Korea’s dictator — that was a positive in my view.) Also I knew it was coming, so there is no disillusionment on my part — which I suppose is something I would share with this grouping of neo-con busting paleo con and conspiratorial mish mashes. Though I shouldn’t share that.

Weird melee of cultural jackassery.  I did not hear the Bad Bunny Super bowl half-time performance — saw it visually, mostly.  Seemed good.  I recognized some Puerto Rico touchstones in it — a bit of an expansive celebration which you, curmudgeonly old white yokel, should be able to identify with broadly if not specifically.  Ends with a display of all the flags of the hemisphere, including incidentally Canada and USA.  I suppose this is a source of agitation — “It’s the USA only, bastard!”.  I suppose if you want to be truly woke you need to shout out all the First Nations.

The much mocked “Turning Point USA” half-time performance, by way of commentary, I ended up hearing more audio out of.  They have Kid Rock lip-syncing.  I like a couple Kid Rock albums — right when he turned to country-rock, don’t like anything before that or after that when he decided he wanted to be the next Ted Nugent.  They have some anti-trans country song by someone or other.  They have a violinist.  All a little bit of a “whatever” in and of themselves.  But I am struck by how trying too hard and narrowcasting it is.  They dedicate it all to Charlie Kirk.  Bring up Charlie Kirk a lot.  Oblivious or unconcerned that no one outside their orbit gives two shits about Charlie Kirk, even after they tried to pound it for political gain.  In the last presidential election, much was made of Trump’s “winning the culture” more so policy, a breeze through various manly podcast spaces that had tapped out of politics and only go so in some weird anti-woke space.  He pulled together a number of fragments there, broadly where I don’t know what “dead centre of the mainstream” is.  They key to their political sway is they are not altogether political in a sense of making great announcements of philosophy.  I suppose we can drop Bad Bunny and his show into the same equation only… more broadly supported.

For his part, Charlie Kirk had tweeted responses on half time shows.  He liked Beyonce’s performance.  I don’t know if maybe Beyonce had more than one show, because her’s was more overtly political and defiant a display.  Elsewhere in comments, I see a little bit of revisionism on the “wardrobe malfunction” of Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake, mocking a right for being in a huff as usual — though that one is more understandable a point — brushing past and forgetting and not having now that it is convenient left-ward  commentary on the power dynamics of the show and what the heck that even was.

Overall I am a kind of “hey, cool.  Bruce Springsteen whipped out a protest song of the moment “Streets of Minneapolis”.  But the song is almost beside the point, I want it to go number one even as I tend to be dour and understand Bob Dylan’s “I don’t want to do finger pointing songs” — we move outside the land of subtlety.  But as per Springsteen — there really isn’t anything subtle you wish to say, and blunt statements are required — the Times really do challenge that notion that, oh Repressive Times at least create great art.  Nah, the art sucks, even when it is what is required.  I see that problem when politicos — Mussolini and Trump — have as part of their appeal complete buffoonery.  So Satire -wise, I see the performance a few months ago from Jesse Welles the song “Join ICE”, and we got a problem.  It could just be lifted unironically for an ICE recruitment pitch, which are not subtle and have identical messaging.  

Is Springsteen’s quick hit good?  My gut tells me no, but it allows an audience to tell “ICE out now! “. Name checking Noem and Milker, who in a decade will be history books as we have new jackasses to take their place. I suffer the trauma of the Bush era’s Neil Young horror show.

Interesting to see Tom Morello, he of Rage Against the Machine fame, as the mc and a performer hosting Springsteen.  I would think Morella at least postures Springsteen as, like, Democratic Party shill (not “Raging” enough) — but, maybe we’re in a land of “close enough” as too the old question for Morello as he fails against en toto The Corporations and Capitalism — sure made millions from your Sony contracts, huh?

We avoided a war for Greenland.  I guess.  The most nonsensical imperial mission imaginable, it ignores that we have been effectively a soft imperial power there in that our government has everything they possibly want in military base and any mineral extraction contracts and if by some crazy reason they’d want more — which there is no reason they would and it would be an unprofitable burden and venture — it could be had for the asking — except for some stupid reason Trump got it in his head that it would be neat to have Greenland.  And off of that we have mainstream and conservative coverage on the Greenland issue as though there is something sane at stake here, rational US actors, great geopolitical concerns in power politics (Russia may want to do something with Greenland, even as… they are the first signees for Trump’s “NATO circumventing and bulldoze Gaza to open up hotels” Board of Peace, so I don’t know what they are.).  We can mark this week as that where the price of electing Trump twice hit on the world stage, as opposed to what we have domestically.  I would like to think a weakened power position has its opportunities for finally limiting American reach — except there this aggression just turns inward — and so it is, ICE thuggery galore, federal government brazen in keeping up the lies.

I suppose we ought all read Hillbilly Elegy to get some sense of the next president — Trump is where everyone thinks Biden was, except malignant so. I always imagine opening up the alternate universes, to see which one at the outset of 2024 keeps us from President Trump, which action from Biden, which nominating decision from the Democrats. I hoped Biden could take his final vow shortly after his State of the Union address — I had him following a new variant Chester Arthur model in keeping up the campaign as it is the only way to govern but pulling the ripcord. From there, I have no idea if Kamala Harris with an extra few months’ could do anything or if we have to skip to Andy Beshear or forced to skip to a Dwayne Johnson. The last redoubt for an alternate universe, and one that is highly doubtful but strokes the line by Allan Lichtman and those “keys” — Biden runs… The logic swirls, America gets confronted by the specter, Biden’s doddering old age serves in the roundabout way to bring us over to Trump’s doddering old age — and now you have clarification — two versions of doddering to choose from, and look into instead of passing it off as a Don Rickels routine that entertains on election day.

The state of Fox News, and sure you skip and hop off there off to Newsmax and OANN for a further nausea, but keeping to Fox News as the central Republican clearinghouse. And in the days of Trump, this gets especially loopy. I could always paint the picture of the hidey-holes and rationalizations and re-directions for ICE’s presence in Minneapolis — Sean Hannity’s cameraman reporter chases a protester (thankfully a well-spoken one) and finds his bottom line question — “you don’t think we should not apprehend illegal immigrants?” — a matter I am more agnostic on than most of the protesters but which is a question thoroughly irrelevant to this situation at hand. Or… same saying as the argument on illegal immigration… “a right way, and a wrong way”.

But if I basically know what all that works out to — and somewhere looming is a celebration of Bill Maher and any other celebrity that makes enough a “both sider” balance of politics as you see MSNow spotlight Joe Rogan.

Curious as you move off of this story and onto some things that are not even in the realm of moving further on issues and positions moved into the mainstream for decades. What is really freaky, and bizarre, and loopy, is seeing the Republican mouthpiece of Fox News keeping a straight face and not missing a beat in describing Trump administration and calls on getting Greenland. As though nothing is abnormal or utterly bizarre about this. And it is a straight-way story, nothing odd about it.

I feel like I need to check back in with Matt Taibbi– that Glen Glenwald type who soft-pedals the crimes of President Trump because he has a hankering to get after the Deep State. There are two things I am curious to hear. One is to see how much his co-host, Walter Kirn, is gloating on the downfall of Tim Walz, who overall was the most pointless Democratic vice presidential nominee since John Edwards. (Can he sway a half dozen old white dudes in exurban Michigan? Nope!) Kirk had a particular hashing on Walz, which is fair and reasonable enough, but he tended to give his particular game away in comparing his political type in history and throwing out the name Gus Hall. The thing on Walz is I barely can concern myself to notice it look into the matter — his is a political governing style that may be prone to lose sight of details, and the mess of covid is something you would want to give leeway for inevitable mis-choices. Of course, the major lure on the right-wing podcasting YouTube guest to the white house to discuss righteousness of ICE guy who did the expose is “Somalis!”, and this — whatever our story is in looking in– gives him a thing to point at to show credibility of his next thing is incredulous — see, “stop the steal”.

The bigger question on Matt Taibbi comes to our new actions on Venezuela. Taibbi comes out of his constant ragging on the Bush Administration in the “War on Terror” and Iraq and keeping it in through the Obama Administration, always a bit flowing with his drone strikes. So Trump’s isolationist posturing gets him to some spot of basic support — as he allows for the fight for the civil liberties of Tulsi Gabbard and fights Ukraine’s propaganda machine. Welcome now to the nakedly imperialist war with Venezuela, the capture of Maduro and the blunt discussion of capturing oil. I know there will be a rationalizing of this for something which, given his historical positioning, should be nothing short of outrage. I imagine just packs of what-aboutisms and a look see over at a new love of concepts of the Monroe Doctrine. Maybe it is just double down on reminding everyone that the Cheneys backed Harris afterall.

I end up seeing few tv commercials this day and age, but when I catch a thing I have to somewhat examine it.  This is on a football game.  Now, in football we have moved from a dominating number of ads for male impotence drugs to gambling — the legal barriers for gambling ads have fallen and this is what we have tied to sportsball showings.  

The ad I catch and watch i, predictably, am not entirely what is for.  Like, chip dip I am assuming.  It is three people in a couch.  A white woman, two guys — one seems to be gay, the other I hate to point as black but in casting a scene I know they made a mental decision for diversity.  The voice -over, “when you are watching the game with your boyfriend who knows nothing about football.”. The fey gay guy makes a couple comments — “what a fantastic looking fumble!” and I don’t know – – I guess the white woman and black man reach for the chip dip to absolve the embarrassment of whatever.

In some prior year, we may have some kind of joke applied toward sports-ignorant woman, trying too hard to be into it for the guy, and maybe we still may pluck that in if we can get It to be somewhat effacing to the man.  Today I guess we can really do that gag if it is applied to an effeminate man?  But on this commercial I am stuck on a question — are they hedging, leave up a plausible deniability for assumption on parts of the audience for who the boyfriend is the boyfriend of, even though — hm.